7.02.2009

Recession

THE LIE
"The only way there is going to be a recession is if [the Liberal Party is] elected, and that's why they're not going to be elected."
from the CBC, reporting on the campaign trail on September 28, 2008

THE TRUTH
Let the record show that Stephen Harper is an economist, so the inaccuracy of his rosy prediction reveals either incompetence or a lie.

"The most recent forecasts, and there has been a series of predictions, [are that] there is a suggestion that there might be a technical recession at the end of this year or the beginning of next [...] Indeed, the economic growth is just about zero, perhaps a little bit less, but it is a technical recession,"
Stephen Harper tap-dancing at the Asia-Pacific summit in Lima on November 23, 2008, about six weeks after his party was re-elected

"Economic projections are now much lower than at the time of our last budget [February 26, 2008]. Private sector forecasters expect real GDP growth of just 0.6 per cent this year and 0.3 per cent next. The same private sector forecasters are now widely expecting a technical recession, with negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.
from Harper's Minister of Finance, Jim Flaherty, during his presentation of the Economic and Fiscal Statement on November 27, 2008

"The sharp contraction that began in the last quarter of 2008 intensified in the first quarter of 2009, led by collapsing exports, fixed investment and stockbuilding. The pace of contraction appears to be slowing, but recessionary conditions are expected to linger through the third quarter, with only a slow recovery thereafter. Unemployment is projected to keep rising until early 2010."
from the OECD's Country Report on Canada in its Economic Outlook no. 85, June 2009
Prime Minister Stephen Harper, centre, wearing a traditional Peruvian poncho at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper, centre, wearing a traditional Peruvian poncho at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima. (Andrew Vaughan/Canadian Press)